As tensions escalate in the Gaza Strip, Turkey finds itself at a potential crossroads, contemplating the possibility of challenging the robust alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan. This strategic partnership, forged over two decades, has been pivotal in energy and defense sectors, with Azerbaijan supplying approximately 40% of Israel’s oil and Israel providing advanced military technology in return.
The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, exacerbated by the ongoing Israel–Hamas conflict, has had far-reaching effects beyond the region. Since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, Israel’s military response has drawn mixed reactions worldwide. While some countries, like Iran and Turkey, have criticized Israel’s actions, others have remained neutral or expressed support.
Azerbaijan, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position. Despite pressure from its ally Turkey, which severed trade ties with Israel in May 2024, Azerbaijan continues to export crude oil to Israel, accounting for 40% of Israel’s oil imports. This economic partnership, built over two decades, is further complicated by shared geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding Iran. While Azerbaijan has condemned civilian casualties in Gaza to maintain its image in the Islamic world, it has not wavered in its strategic partnership with Israel, highlighting the complexity of regional alliances.
Despite Azerbaijan’s close ties with Turkey and Iran, it has maintained a strong and mutually beneficial relationship with Israel. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a key route for oil exports, plays a crucial role in this partnership, making Azerbaijan a critical energy supplier to Israel. Moreover, the two countries have deepened their defense collaboration, with Israel being a significant supplier of weapons and military equipment to Azerbaijan.
However, the recent conflict in Gaza has stirred public opinion in Turkey, where there is significant sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Many Turks are calling on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to leverage Turkey’s influence over Azerbaijan to pressure Israel diplomatically. The calls include proposals to halt Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel and reassess the broader geopolitical dynamics.
Turkey has historically balanced its relationships with Azerbaijan and Israel, emphasizing its cultural and religious connections with Azerbaijan while maintaining diplomatic and economic relations with Israel. The prospect of Turkey intervening in the Israel-Azerbaijan partnership presents a complex challenge, as it could affect not only bilateral relations but also regional stability.
While Erdogan has expressed support for Palestinians and criticized Israeli actions in Gaza, any move to undermine the Israel-Azerbaijan alliance would require careful consideration. Analysts suggest that such a move could have far-reaching implications, potentially altering the geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus and beyond.
As the situation in Gaza continues to evolve, all eyes are on Ankara to see if Turkey will take a more assertive stance, potentially altering the course of its foreign policy and affecting its alliances in the region.
