In a high-stakes diplomatic gambit, the Trump administration is reportedly conditioning a multibillion-dollar sale of advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets to Saudi Arabia on the kingdom’s commitment to normalize relations with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords. The move, which could reshape Middle East security dynamics, comes as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) prepares for a pivotal White House visit next week, where defence deals and economic pacts are expected to dominate discussions.
President Donald Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One on Friday, confirmed he is “pondering” the deal, noting that the Saudis “wanna buy a lot of jets” – potentially exceeding the 48 aircraft initially floated in negotiations. “I hope that Saudi Arabia will be going into the Abraham Accords fairly shortly,” Trump added, echoing his long-standing push to expand the 2020 normalization agreements that brought Israel closer to the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
The potential agreement, valued at up to $23 billion, would mark the first time an Arab nation beyond the UAE gains access to the U.S.-built F-35 Lightning II, the world’s premier fifth-generation stealth fighter. Israel, the only Middle Eastern operator of the jet with over 75 in its fleet, has signaled it does not oppose the sale – but only if explicitly tied to full Saudi-Israeli diplomatic ties. “Unlike the supply of F-35s to Turkey that we strongly oppose, we are less concerned about such weapons system in Saudi Arabia if it’s part of a regional security cooperation as part of the Abraham Accords,” one Israeli official told Axios. Jerusalem’s stance reflects longstanding U.S. commitments to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME), codified in law since 2008, while viewing normalization as a counterweight to shared threats like Iran.
However, the deal remains in limbo amid layered concerns. A recent Pentagon intelligence report warns that Saudi Arabia’s deepening military ties with China – including joint ballistic missile development – could expose sensitive F-35 technology to Beijing, potentially compromising U.S. national security. Democratic lawmakers, citing human rights issues and Riyadh’s role in Yemen, have already voiced opposition, with some invoking the 2018 Khashoggi murder as a red line. Despite these hurdles, the proposal has cleared initial Pentagon reviews and advanced to Cabinet-level deliberations, with Trump expected to sign off during MBS’s visit.
For Riyadh, the F-35 represents a quantum leap from its current fleet of F-15s and Eurofighters, enabling deep-strike capabilities against adversaries like Iran or Houthi rebels. Yet Saudi hesitation on normalization persists, linked to the ongoing Gaza conflict and demands for a Palestinian pathway – echoes of why a similar 2023 deal collapsed post-October 7. Trump, architect of the original Accords, sees the jets as a “carrot” to lure MBS, bundling them with a $142 billion arms package inked earlier this year and mutual defence pledges.
